What's the Probability?

So today, actually about eight hours ago, I lost my money clip. Enclosed were three credit cards, $40 cash, £30 cash, Drivers licenses for the UK and US, and my Costco VIP card.

We've scoured Oceans of Fun today where I lost it. I suspect that I lost it in the parking lot. On occasions such as these what do you believe the probability of recovery is? 10%, 20% or more?

I wonder if the probability of it being turned in (either with or without the cash) had dropped, increased or stayed approximately the same from a decade or more ago. Certainly over the long term I'll bet the probability has gone down. But how much I really don't know.

If you found a money clip with the items I noted above, would you turn it in? Take the money and throw the rest in the trash? Take the money and turn it in saying their was no money in it? This would be a great straw poll for some TV show. But only after they actually observed 100 people come upon it and recorded what they did.

Because I lost it at a water park on a Friday I'll bet my chances of recovery are even more slim. Lots of teenagers at the park today.

Well, figured I could vent just a bit via blog rather than taking it out on someone at the park. The security guard specifically. When I wanted to go to the area where we had congregated for most of the day to look for it (it was after hours) he said "was there money in it?". I said yes and his response was "then I'm sure it's not there". Thanks for the vote of confidence buddy.

But in hindsight, he was right and would be right a lot more than he would be wrong in this case. Maybe he's a bookie or something.