Paralyzing Data

Wow, I could spend two weeks on this subject.  This material overlaps with one of our previous subjects, although I can't remember which one in particular (and I'm too lazy to look back and find out).

In my 23 years in the Navy I've grown increasingly frustrated with day-to-day life in the Navy and you can tie a lot of that frustration to "big data."  The proliferation of information in the form of data is paralyzing my Navy.  We spend our lives in the defense of our nation collecting and presenting data.  It's maddening, because every presentation of data simply results in identifying the need for even more data.

I'm not saying data is useless.  But as you alluded to, Ed, data isn't the end all.  At some point you have to make a decision, and you can't rely solely on data.  If you make any decision solely on data you are managing, not leading.  How about intuition?  I'm seeing a common trait in many of our military leaders these days: "If I just had a little more data I could make a better decision."  It drives me crazy, because in many instances it's a cop out.  You are a COMMANDING OFFICER for God's sake - make a decision!  Andrew Mason, who was fired last month as the CEO of Groupon, said this in his farewell email to the company:  "My biggest regrets are the moments that I let a lack of data override my intuition on what's best for our customers."  Big data did him wrong.  But data didn't get fired.  He did.

I've shared this quote by General Patton before and I think it applies here:  "A good plan, violently executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week."  That would mean making a decision and executing a plan prior to waiting for the big data.

Here is another, this time from Theodore Roosevelt:  "In any moment of decision the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing."  Don't let the data paralyze you.

I know this was a quick post, and I'm not spending the time to support all my assumptions, but we have become a Navy of data for the sake of data.  As leaders, we spend all of our time gathering data, presenting data, reviewing data...  and what gets lost is the more important leadership responsibilities of casting vision, strategic planning, etc.

The point where data goes beyond helpful and becomes obstructive is very difficult to identify, I'll admit that.  But what your companies and my Navy needs is strong leadership, NOT more data management.

Marc on the Message to Garcia

I'm playing catch up here so I'll be slightly less verbose than normal.  I was "off the grid" for a few days up on a mountain where my phone told me that there was "no service".

Yes, this essay is still used in military circles.  I remember that it was one of the things we had to read during my initiation into the Chief Petty Officer mess.  We had to be prepared to discuss our thoughts on the matter.

In the words of the endearing Colonel Nathan R. Jessup, "We follow orders son.  We follow orders or people die.  It's that simple.  Are we clear?"

Brad, you're right.  In the military, when people's lives CAN literally be on the line, there are times when you don't question.  But, in the military context, when NOT questioning an order can also cost lives, the most difficult thing is knowing when to say, "Aye aye Sir" and carry out the order and when, as a leader, you have the responsibility to get clarification on an order.  That is as much a responsibility as carrying out an order.

Here are a couple of "takeaways" that I use from this story:

First, if you take the time to teach and explain your orders on a regular basis when you DO have the time for it, your subordinates will understand the urgency of a situation when you say, "I don't have time to explain now."  They know that when you say that there is a very good reason for it and will carry on smartly.

Second, everyone wants subordinates who take a task and simply go do it without having to give a detailed explanation.  However, Blanchard would call that person a D4 subordinate, and the only way to get a D4 subordinate is to develop them to that point from D1, D2, and D3, which requires direction, explanation, and coaching from the leader.  In other words, those people who can take a task without any explanation and accomplish it well don't just drop out of the sky, they are developed.  And subordinate development is the task of the leader who wants D4 followers.  Lazy leaders want everyone to walk in the door as a D4.  It's hard work developing others.  It takes time and commitment.

Third, no subordinate is going to run a task to ground on their own if they are consistently told in detail how to accomplish every bit of tasking that they ever receive.  THAT is how you develop mindless drones: spell everything out for them all the time.  But again, to develop subordinates, as a leader you have to let them try to figure things out on their own at some point.  Otherwise they will stand there and wait for detailed direction before they take off to find Garcia.

Lastly, in the Navy context, you make your arguments with the Captain (in private) when you don't agree with him/her, but once he/she has made the decision, it's time to walk out the door of the office and figure out how to get it done.  That's the bottom line.

Brad, you made a comment about how you don't want employees that are "yes men".  The military doesn't want them either, but I would think that whether it's a military unit or a medical revenue company, when the Commanding Officer or CEO makes a decision, it's time to get it done.  They hold that position for a reason.  NOT following orders is a good way to find yourself looking for a different job.

Diet and Fitness

These are two of the most talked about topics these days, and everyone has their own recipe for improving both and by doing so improving your health.  That is the bottom line:  HEALTH.

Well, my two cents on these topics is that there are some honest truths about these topics that will do far more for you than any of the latest dietary supplements or fitness crazes going on out there.  These products are praying on the new American dream ... "I wish I was in better shape, felt better and looked better.  And wouldn't it be even better if in my new skin I could do things tomorrow that I can't do today.  Wow, wouldn't that be great?"

Here are those honest truths that I've been hearing about forever:

1. Everything in moderation - This pertains mostly to diet but also has some application in fitness.  Most people don't have to give up anything in their diets, they just have to consume less of it.  There may be a few exceptions if any one element of your diet is delivering 50% or more of your calories but that is the exception not the rule.  So with everything we put in our pie hole, just eat less of it.  On the fitness front, muscle disruption was at one time all the rage.  I do think that varied exercise is better than doing just one thing.  Find at least a couple of things you enjoy that will get you off your ass, and then mix them up and do one of those things a couple times a week and the other a couple times a week.  And BAM, you're working out regularly!

2. Changing your behavior is hard - On the fitness front they say "the toughest step you take in deciding to get fit is the first one".  And that's true every single time you know you need to work out.  On the diet front, it seems the pantry or cupboard is always filled with the stuff you want to eat even though you know you probably shouldn't.  Or at least not that much.  Here at the KC Baldwins we have a large pantry and shop at Costco.  Yikes ... Whenever I step in there all my eyes gravitate to is that oversize Doritos bag, that 3 pound jar of chocolate covered almonds, or the extra sized box of Ritz crackers.  I love to eat all of them, by the way.  Instead, I try to eat eggs, fruit and drink lots of water.  But I have to admit I do sneak an occasional handful of those chocolate covered almonds!  Hey, they're almonds right?  And, re-read #1 if your frowning right now.  The point here is if you miss a workout or two, don't feel guilty.  Just get back on track.  If last night you had some friends over and personally devoured half of that deep dish pizza, make sure you eat a sound and healthy breakfast in the morning and get back on track.  

3.  It's always better with a partner - Yes, I'm still talking about diet and fitness so don't get your panties in a wad.  It takes discipline to eat better and work out more.  And when you have someone to kick you in the pants when you don't want to, that helps tremendously.  Going solo means more frequent falls from the wagon.  When someone is going the road with you (diet or fitness) it makes the road a bit easier because they are there to keep you on the wagon when you desperately want to fall off because you're too damn tired to want to work out or your kids left that open bag of Doritos on the counter all by its lonesome and no one's home to see you cheat.  But if your wife is around she says "oh, no you aren't and puts the bag away.  Yeah, we've all been there.

So, like most of us I set New Year's goals for myself in both these areas at the first of the year.  And I'm pleased to say I've taken my own advice and it's paid off.  I'm lighter than I've been in almost two years and in better shape than I've been in a long time.  Doing so has meant living each of these basic principles as much as I can every day.

And you can too.

Brad on Big Data

Great post, very interesting topic and one that is being applied across all our businesses today. Look for example at the explosion of data available to help me manage my fantasy basketball league. I've been playing for several years and each year Yahoo has added features that expand the "big data" I can use.

Yesterday I was reading an op ed piece which provides another slant on big data that is specific to healthcare. Healthcare's complexity creates a nearly unlimited universe to collect, slice and package big data. But to your point Ed, this article discusses what makes a clinician effective. And the short of it is using experience to be able to predict black swans. Black swans are healthcare events that are extremely rare yet have drastic consequences.

I will go back to an oft-circulated presentation on leadership by Colin Powell. In it, one of the lessons of leadership is:

Use the formula of P-40 to 70, in which P stands for the probability of success and the numbers indicate the percentage of information acquired. Once the information is in the 40 to 70 range, go with your gut.

Big data attempts to give us 100% of the information, but at the end of the day we can be paralyzed by this information and it doesn't leave room for our gut, the experience we have that helps us make the best decisions and identify black swans.

Big Data? Big Deal.

For some reason March Madness brings gambling, odds and statistics into our daily lives like no other. 

Some ridiculous percentage of Americans fill out an NCAA tournament bracket just to try their odds and see how well they can predict who the eventual national champion will be.  It's particularly intriguing since most can't remember who won two weeks after the tournament is over ... unless it was "your team" or you happened to renew your subscription to Sports Illustrated and received the commemoration pack. 

In the corporate world there is a continual push to get more data and measurement.  No matter how much data you have, you want and need more.  Why?  

Because it's important to understanding what happened in the past (with 100% accuracy) and more importantly to predict what's going to happen in the future  How is the company doing, but more importantly how is it going to do.  Companies seek quantifiable statistics about nearly every aspect of their business: revenue, profits, cost of sales, turnover, ROI, productivity, etc ... It's eloquently called BIG DATA.  Sounds pretty cool huh?  It's one of the new phrases being uttered in executive boardrooms of the very best companies.  And yet it falls short, way short.  

On a parallel track the NCAA tournament has incredible amounts of data to evaluate teams and predict outcomes.  How many different statistics do you think is viewed by the NCAA selection committee?  Do you think they consider statistics that aren't being covered by all the analysts on ESPN?  

And isn't it interesting how when it comes to decisions of magnitude that we all seem to attempt to extract those intangible, unquantifiable elements from BIG DATA?  We have to in order to validate our analysis because we can't figure out a way to include it meaningfully in the equation.  So we tend to trivialize, discount and discredit the importance of these unquantifiable elements in predicting success.  

We all do it, but it's WRONG.  Yep, we are all wrong.  Literally hundreds of millions of people are wrong in completing their brackets.  I know I am, and I'm betting yours is too.  There is no shortage of BIG DATA for all to utilize, and its readily available for anyone who wants to wade through it.  So given this, why is success so fleeting?

Because things like teamwork, coaching strategy, engagement, playing style, referee selection and even team nutrition play crucially into the formula for winning a basketball game.  And guess what, they play crucially into winning companies as well.  Not to mention luck ... which almost always gets mentioned when a game is close as the potential difference maker.

Where are the statistics on NCAA tournament teams for these elements?  Suddenly BIG DATA doesn't seem quite so big.

BIG DATA has given us nearly every imaginable quantifiable statistic.  How many times did this player make the front end of a 1-and-1 on Tuesday nights on the road over the past two seasons?  Just a minute, I've got that number.  How many times did the Irish win when facing a non-conference team that had a better record than they did and where they choose to where fluorescent green?  Got that number too.  

But all that adds up to squat.  It's a classic case of the law of diminishing returns.  So here's my pitch ...

If you want to predict the outcome of a basketball game or your company's success you need to include the emotional, intangible, human factors that can and often do make the difference.  Use your human judgment and gut in a way that can't be replicated by BIG DATA generated from a computer.  And using these intangibles in a meaningful way in your decision making requires strong intuition, experience and understanding these intangibles better than others.  

Sure, use the statistics and BIG DATA that is available to you.  But also rely on those intangible components and include them in your decision making process.  Doing so won't just ensure you aren't replaced by a computer someday but will also increase your likelihood of being RIGHT, something everyone can appreciate.

 

A Message to Garcia

We had an employee who resigned his employment because he was going active duty military. He had been in the ROTC program during college but was placed on reserves after graduation. Now getting the opportunity he hoped, he is on his way to Ft. Benning to begin his military training and education.

Before he left he shared with me an essay: A Message to Garcia by Elbert Hubbard. Written in 1899, it became one of the most widely published essays of its time selling over 40 million copies. The message is simple, my question is does it still apply today?

You can read it HERE.

It is supposedly still popular in military ranks, in fact this employee said it was required reading for him before he reported. Maybe "blind" execution and loyalty is more important and achievable in the military, but at least in my business our company would be less successful if our employees were "yes-men" and just did what leadership says regardless of whether or not it made sense.

Thoughts?